This vignette demonstrates the wolverine spatial capture-recapture model, as in “Efficient MCMC for Spatial Capture-Recapture Models” (Turek et al, submitted). Specifically, we implement the final version of the wolverine model and MCMC using nimble (de Valpine et al. 2017; NIMBLE Development Team 2020). Details of the functions and procedure are provided therein.
We compiled all functions in the nimbleSCR package version 0.1.0 (Bischof et al. 2020).
Here, we define the nimble model structure.
code <- nimbleCode({
## priors
psi ~ dunif(0, 1)
sigma ~ dunif(0, 50)
p0 ~ dunif(0, 1)
## loop over individuals
for(i in 1:n.individuals) {
## AC coordinates
sxy[i,1] ~ dunif(0, x.max)
sxy[i,2] ~ dunif(0, y.max)
## habitat constraint
ones[i] ~ dHabitatMask( s = sxy[i,1:2],
xmin = lowerCoords[1],
xmax = upperCoords[1],
ymin = lowerCoords[2],
ymax = upperCoords[2],
habitat = habitat.mx[1:y.max,1:x.max])
## latent dead/alive indicators
z[i] ~ dbern(psi)
## likelihood
y[i, 1:nMaxDetectors] ~ dbinomLocal_normal( detNums = nbDetections[i],
detIndices = yDets[i,1:nMaxDetectors],
size = trials[1:n.detectors],
p0 = p0,
s = sxy[i,1:2],
sigma = sigma,
trapCoords = detector.xy[1:n.detectors,1:2],
localTrapsIndices = detectorIndex[1:n.cells,1:maxNBDets],
localTrapsNum = nDetectors[1:n.cells],
resizeFactor = ResizeFactor,
habitatGrid = habitatIDDet[1:y.maxDet,1:x.maxDet],
indicator = z[i])
}
## derived quantity: total population size
N <- sum(z[1:n.individuals])
})We load the wolverine example data available from the Dryad Digital Repository (Milleret et al. 2018). See Milleret et al. (2019) for a complete description of the data.
The data file can be downloaded at [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.42m96c8].
We also create objects code, constants,
data, and inits for later use in the function
nimbleModel.
data <- list(y = my.jags.input$y,
z = my.jags.input$z,
detector.xy = my.jags.input$detector.xy,
habitat.mx = my.jags.input$habitat.mx,
ones = my.jags.input$OK,
lowerCoords = c(0,0),
upperCoords = c(
dim(my.jags.input$habitat.mx)[2],
dim(my.jags.input$habitat.mx)[1]),
trials = rep(1, dim(my.jags.input$detector.xy)[1]))
constants <- list(n.individuals = my.jags.input$n.individuals,
n.detectors = dim(my.jags.input$detector.xy)[1],
y.max = dim(my.jags.input$habitat.mx)[1],
x.max = dim(my.jags.input$habitat.mx)[2])
inits <- list(sxy = inits.1$sxy,
z = inits.1$z,
p0 = 0.05,
psi = 0.5,
sigma = 6)The dbinomLocal_normal() distribution incorporates three
features to increase computational efficiency.
This step restricts calculations of the detection probabilities (here
using a halfnormal function) to detectors (traps) within a radius where
detections are realistically possible (Milleret
et al. 2019). We use the function getLocalObjects to
identify the set of detectors that are within a certain distance \(d_{max}\) of each habitat cell center
(blue points in the plot below). These
reduced sets of detectors are stored in the localIndices
matrix and are later used in the local evaluation of the detection model
to speed up calculations. The value of \(d_{max}\) should be as small as possible in
order to reduce computation but always large enough so that for any
particular individual, the set of local traps associated with the
coordinates of the activity center s include all detectors
at which that individual was detected. The \(d_{max}\) value will therefore affect the
number of columns in localIndices Here, we use \(d_{max}=38\). with the coordinates of the
activity center s … We also aggregated the habitat matrix to obtain
larger habitat cells (lower resolution) and obtain objects with smaller
dimensions. This reduces the number of habitat cells for which we have
to identify the set of detectors that are within \(d_{max}\) of the cell center. The goal is
to create the object localIndices of the smallest dimension
possible, that balances the cost of looking up relevant grid cells and
reducing calculations for each grid cell.
Here, we resize the habitat matrix by a factor of 24, which
corresponds to the resizeFactor argument. This means that
24x24 cells are aggregated into a single cell. The
resizeFactor value will affect how many rows
localIndices will be composed of.
set.seed(2)
DetectorIndex <- getLocalObjects(habitatMask = data$habitat.mx,
coords = data$detector.xy,
dmax = 38,
resizeFactor = 24)constants$y.maxDet <- dim(DetectorIndex$habitatGrid)[1]
constants$x.maxDet <- dim(DetectorIndex$habitatGrid)[2]
constants$ResizeFactor <- DetectorIndex$resizeFactor
constants$n.cells <- dim(DetectorIndex$localIndices)[1]
constants$maxNBDets <- DetectorIndex$numLocalIndicesMax
data$detectorIndex <- DetectorIndex$localIndices
data$nDetectors <- DetectorIndex$numLocalIndices
data$habitatIDDet <- DetectorIndex$habitatGridWe re-express y as a sparse representation of the
detection matrix to reduce its size. In this representation, we turn the
detection matrix y into three objects:
detIndices: where each row (corresponding to one
individual) contains the identification numbers of detectors at which
that individual was detected.y: a second matrix of identical dimension, containing
the number of detections of a given individual at each detector. This
second matrix is necessary for modelling non-binary detections
(e.g. \(binomial\) observation
models)detNums: a vector containing the number of detectors at
which each individual was detected.The function dbinomLocal_normal() takes the
logical argument indicator that specifies
whether the individual i is available (\(z_i\) = 1) for detection or not (\(z_i\) = 0). When \(z_i\) = 0, calculations of \(p_{ij}\) are not performed and therefore
increases MCMC efficiency.
Now, we can create the nimble model object, using the
model structure defined in code, and the constants, data,
and initial values.
We configure an MCMC algorithm to the Rmodel model
object.
We assign MCMC monitors to \(N\), \(\sigma\), and \(p_0\).
We also remove the univariate Metropolis-Hastings samplers that were
assigned by default to each dimension of the sxy variables
(ACs). Instead, we add joint Metropolis-Hastings samplers
(RW_block) samplers to each \(x\) and \(y\) coordinate pair
sxy[i, 1:2].
conf <- configureMCMC(Rmodel, monitors = c("N", "sigma", "p0"), print = FALSE)
conf$removeSamplers("sxy")
ACnodes <- paste0("sxy[", 1:constants$n.individuals, ", 1:2]")
for(node in ACnodes) {
conf$addSampler(target = node,
type = "RW_block",
control = list(adaptScaleOnly = TRUE),
silent = TRUE)
}
Rmcmc <- buildMCMC(conf)First, we can extract the MCMC runtime (5.2 minutes in this case):
## elapsed
## 5.2
Next, we can check the posterior effective sample size (ESS) resulting from our 10 000 posterior samples for the three parameters we tracked (\(N\), \(\sigma\), and \(p_0\)):
## N p0 sigma
## 463.24 290.02 179.18
We can also calculate the MCMC efficiency for each parameter; this corresponds to the rate of generating effectively independent posterior samples, per second of MCMC runtime:
## N p0 sigma
## 1.48 0.93 0.57
Summary of posterior distributions for each parameter:
## Mean Median St.Dev. 95%CI_low 95%CI_upp
## N 390.54 390.00 25.34 343.00 444.00
## p0 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.04 0.06
## sigma 5.86 5.84 0.27 5.38 6.40
Examine traceplots and posterior distributions: